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Global change drivers, such as anthropogenic nutrient inputs, are increasing globally. Nutrient deposition simultaneously alters plant biodiversity, species composition and ecosystem processes like aboveground biomass production. These changes are underpinned by species extinction, colonisation and shifting relative abundance. Here, we use the Price equation to quantify and link the contributions of species that are lost, gained or that persist to change in aboveground biomass in 59 experimental grassland sites. Under ambient (control) conditions, compositional and biomass turnover was high, and losses (i.e. local extinctions) were balanced by gains (i.e. colonisation). Under fertilisation, the decline in species richness resulted from increased species loss and decreases in species gained. Biomass increase under fertilisation resulted mostly from species that persist and to a lesser extent from species gained. Drivers of ecological change can interact relatively independently with diversity, composition and ecosystem processes and functions such as aboveground biomass due to the individual contributions of species lost, gained or persisting. 

Interactions among grazing pressure, climate, soil properties, and biodiversity affect ecosystem services provided by drylands. 

Abstract Eutrophication is a widespread environmental change that usually reduces the stabilizing effect of plant diversity on productivity in local communities. Whether this effect is scale dependent remains to be elucidated. Here, we determine the relationship between plant diversity and temporal stability of productivity for 243 plant communities from 42 grasslands across the globe and quantify the effect of chronic fertilization on these relationships. Unfertilized local communities with more plant species exhibit greater asynchronous dynamics among species in response to natural environmental fluctuations, resulting in greater local stability (alpha stability). Moreover, neighborhood communities that have greater spatial variation in plant species composition within sites (higher beta diversity) have greater spatial asynchrony of productivity among communities, resulting in greater stability at the larger scale (gamma stability). Importantly, fertilization consistently weakens the contribution of plant diversity to both of these stabilizing mechanisms, thus diminishing the positive effect of biodiversity on stability at differing spatial scales. Our findings suggest that preserving grassland functional stability requires conservation of plant diversity within and among ecological communities. 

Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized.

Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis.

Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales.

We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight.

 

Human activities are altering ecological communities around the globe. Understanding the implications of these changes requires that we consider the composition of those communities. However, composition can be summarized by many metrics which in turn are influenced by different ecological processes. For example, incidence‐based metrics strongly reflect species gains or losses, while abundance‐based metrics are minimally affected by changes in the abundance of small or uncommon species. Furthermore, metrics might be correlated with different predictors. We used a globally distributed experiment to examine variation in species composition within 60 grasslands on six continents. Each site had an identical experimental and sampling design: 24 plots × 4 years. We expressed compositional variation within each site—not across sites—using abundance‐ and incidence‐based metrics of the magnitude of dissimilarity (Bray–Curtis and Sorensen, respectively), abundance‐ and incidence‐based measures of the relative importance of replacement (balanced variation and species turnover, respectively), and species richness at two scales (per plot‐year [alpha] and per site [gamma]). Average compositional variation among all plot‐years at a site was high and similar to spatial variation among plots in the pretreatment year, but lower among years in untreated plots. For both types of metrics, most variation was due to replacement rather than nestedness. Differences among sites in overall within‐site compositional variation were related to several predictors. Environmental heterogeneity (expressed as the CV of total aboveground plant biomass in unfertilized plots of the site) was an important predictor for most metrics. Biomass production was a predictor of species turnover and of alpha diversity but not of other metrics. Continentality (measured as annual temperature range) was a strong predictor of Sorensen dissimilarity. Metrics of compositional variation are moderately correlated: knowing the magnitude of dissimilarity at a site provides little insight into whether the variation is driven by replacement processes. Overall, our understanding of compositional variation at a site is enhanced by considering multiple metrics simultaneously. Monitoring programs that explicitly incorporate these implications, both when designing sampling strategies and analyzing data, will have a stronger ability to understand the compositional variation of systems and to quantify the impacts of human activities.

 

Predicted increases in temperature and changes to precipitation are expected to alter the amount of plant available nutrients, in turn, altering rates of primary production and exotic plant invasions. However, it remains unclear whether increased responses occur in wetter than average years, even in low fertility and low rainfall regions.

Four Australian grasslands, including sites in arid Western Australia, semi‐arid Victoria, alpine Victoria and sub‐tropical Queensland.

Using identical nutrient addition experiments, we use 6‐years of biomass, cover and species richness data to examine how rates of biomass production and native and exotic cover and richness are affected by growing season precipitation [proportion of yearly growing season precipitation (GSP) to long‐term meanGSP] and nutrient (N, P, K and micronutrients) addition.

Rates of grassland productivity strongly increased with increasingGSP.GSPincreased rates of native cover but not native or exotic richness, nor rates of exotic cover change. We detected no significantNPKeffect on rates of grassland productivity, exotic cover or exotic richness change. In contrast,NPKaddition decreased rates of native cover change and fertilized plots had significantly fewer native species. We did not detect a significant interaction betweenNPKandGSP_.

Grassland productivity was more strongly predicted by variation in growing season precipitation than by nutrient addition, suggesting it will vary with future changes in rainfall. Response to nutrients, however, depend on species origin, suggesting that increasing soil nutrient availability due to anthropogenic activities is likely to lead to negative effects on native species richness and cover.

 

Microbial processing of aggregate‐unprotected organic matter inputs is key for soil fertility, long‐term ecosystem carbon and nutrient sequestration and sustainable agriculture. We investigated the effects of adding multiple nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium plus nine essential macro‐ and micro‐nutrients) on decomposition and biochemical transformation of standard plant materials buried in 21 grasslands from four continents. Addition of multiple nutrients weakly but consistently increased decomposition and biochemical transformation of plant remains during the peak‐season, concurrent with changes in microbial exoenzymatic activity. Higher mean annual precipitation and lower mean annual temperature were the main climatic drivers of higher decomposition rates, while biochemical transformation of plant remains was negatively related to temperature of the wettest quarter. Nutrients enhanced decomposition most at cool, high rainfall sites, indicating that in a warmer and drier future fertilized grassland soils will have an even more limited potential for microbial processing of plant remains.